We end wildcard weekend with an interesting NFC matchup Vikings vs. Rams. Why was this picked as the Monday night game, does Vegas have something up their sleeve? Currently, the away Vikings are favored by 2.5 points. I wanted to get this post out to note a few key elements in this matchup:
#1 Vikings pass rush
Brian Flores has been highly notes this year for his complicated blitz packages. The problem is, they don't really have a talented pass rush (PFF 8th worst) and teams have had the entire regular season to scout them up. The Vikings primarily run zone packages only being in man 14% of the year. Hammer Puka! He led all Rams wr's with 59 targets vs zone defense and should get plenty of looks. If you are playing DFS, it is tempting to put the lower price Kupp into your lineup....Don't
If you are feeling frisky, I also like Demarcus Robinson longest catch over 15 yards. His average depth per target vs. man is 15.9 yards and 16.3 vs. zone
#2 Rams Rush Defense
I am not all Rams as their rush D has not looked good this year.
* 16.2 missed tackle rate
* 6.3 depth of tackle vs running plays
I can see Aaron Jones busting out a few big plays and falling in the end zone. Here are a few to take your pick on.
#3 LA Pass Defense
Two metrics I love here:
1. LA - 10th worst PFF graded pass coverage
2. LA - Played Man Defense 55% of the year
Can someone say Justin Jefferson? Big time players make big time plays right? JJ has an overwhelming target share vs. his peers in man defense and a 15 yard depth per target. Play it easy with his yards taking the 80+ , but hit his receptions hard. His regular O/U catches is 6.5. Juice this baby up to 8+ for a fun +185. It's the playoffs right?
As many of you all know Downtown Brown. I am mostly a prop guy. NFL games have so many ups and downs. However I will share I will go with the hometown dog and give me a modified over!
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