Unpopular Dynasty Opinion

Each year the Fantasy Football community forms a consensus as to where players should be selected in dynasty rookie drafts, start-ups and how they should be valued in trades.  That consensus stems from a combination of expert rankings, relevant news items and each player’s perceived opportunity for production. There is nothing wrong with keeping tabs on the industry consensus throughout the off-season. In fact, the best dynasty managers are aware of how players are being valued on the market and can use that information to identify buy and sell opportunities. But if there’s one thing we know for certain, it’s that consensus is sure to get it wrong somewhere along the line. Seasoned managers know that sometimes the best way to improve your team is to go against industry consensus and make decisions that are “unpopular” compared to what the rest of the community thinks.

Context:

• Positional rankings are taken from Dynasty League Football (DLF)
• Previous finishes reflect a half PPR scoring format

Unpopular Opinion #1

Ranked as DLF’s WR7, Tee Higgins is the most overrated WR in Dynasty.

Let’s be clear. Overrated does not mean terrible. In his 3 years in the league, Higgins has finished WR30, WR22 & WR17 overall and WR42, WR15 & WR15 on a points per game basis. Quality production, no doubt. But, at WR7 we are talking about placing Higgins among the fantasy elite at his position. Admittedly, he checks several boxes that we want to see in a dynasty WR. Talented? Check. Plays in a high scoring offense? Check. Young? At 24 years of age, he certainly won’t be applying for an AARP card anytime soon, check. So, what’s not to like here? Well, for starters, Higgins shares his WR room with arguably the best receiver in the game in Ja’Maar Chase. Chase is a true target hog, finishing 5^th in targets per game in 2022 and it’s clear that his best days are ahead of him. While it is certainly possible for multiple WRs in the same offense to be fantasy viable, Higgins has rarely been a true difference maker in games that he and Chase are on the field together. In the last two seasons, Higgins has registered 15 or more fantasy points just 5 times in a 26-game span where both receivers have played at least 50% of the snaps. Higgins making his way out of Cincinnati beyond 2023 is in the realm of possibilities, but as long as he remains a Bengal, his fantasy ceiling will ultimately be capped.

But wait, there’s more. Put Higgins aside for a moment and continue down the WR rankings and you’ll find the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith. All those players are age 25 or younger and either profile as their team’s top WR going forward or have at least one WR1 finish on their resume. Zoom out a bit further and you’ll find that of DLF’s top 12 ranked WRs, Higgins is the only player to never once finish as a top 12 fantasy scoring WR or finish in the top 25 in targets per game. Regardless of build, dynasty managers should be kicking the tires on any of the players ranked behind him and see if they can pick up additional value in the process. In conclusion, do I want Tee Higgins on my dynasty rosters? Yes, I do. But if I’m in the market for a young WR on the trade market or in a start-up draft I’d happily look elsewhere at his current price point.