The 2022 WR Class 1 Year Later - Part 3

Each Spring, Dynasty managers dive headfirst into rookie scouting mode. We memorize heights and weights, 40-times and broad jumps and regurgitate them like they represent a guaranteed path to fantasy gold on the horizon. Unfortunately, differentiating between hits and misses is a much trickier exercise than simply combing over a player’s draft profile. When we move on to a new crop of players each year, what does that mean for the previous year’s class? Should we assume that we know all there is to know about the 2022 class because they have a year of experience under their belt? Of course not. In this series we’ll look back at the WRs selected around the top 12 in rookie drafts in last season and recap their first NFL campaign and project what 2023 has in store for this crop of players.

Some Context:

• All scoring finishes reflect a half PPR format.
• Rankings are based off 1QB data from Dynasty League Football’s (DLF) top 250.
• Player ages indicate the age that the player will be at the conclusion of the 2023 fantasy season.

Garrett Wilson – New York Jets

• Age: 23
• 2022 Finish: WR19
• Overall Rank: 9
• Rank: WR6

Typically thought of as a wasteland for fantasy production, Wilson’s WR19 finish in 2022 was the highest point total a Jets WR has registered in the last 7 seasons. Erupting for 8/102/2 during the second week of the season, the former Buckeye wasted no time demonstrating that his skillset would translate to the next level. Despite catching passes from a collection of Zach Wilson, Mike White and the ghost of Joe Flacco, Wilson managed an impressive 85.9 receiving grade (per Pro Football Focus) which was good for 9^th in the league among receivers.  The QB play no doubt put a cap on Wilson’s 2022 production ceiling, but he did manage 5 WR2 or better performances during the final 10 games of his rookie campaign.

What has changed going into 2023? Other than future first ballot Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers taking over at QB, a new OC that saw Rodgers win the NFL MVP award in both 2020 & 2021 and Elijah Moore departing for Cleveland, nothing at all. Okay, to be fair the team did add former Packers WRs Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb in free agency while also inking Mecole Hardman to a 4-year contract. But let’s be clear, none of these players are anywhere near Wilson’s caliber. Remember when I said Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs in this system recently? Well, Lazard was in town for both of those seasons, Cobb rejoined the Packers in 2021 and Davante Adams still posted 2 top 3 scoring fantasy seasons.  Does Wilson have a similar upside as early as 2023? You bet. But between this being the first year of the Rodgers and Wilson partnership, the Jets strong defense (2^nd in the league in points allowed in 2022) and the presence of Breece Hall and Michael Carter, it’s best to slot Wilson into the middle for the WR1 mix for the upcoming season.

Commish’s Advice: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Hold. If you grabbed Wilson in the middle of the first round of rookie drafts in 2022, you’ve probably spent the last year or so reminding your league mates that you’re smarter than they are. Keep that victory lap going and enjoy the production that the 23-year-old will provide to you for the foreseeable future. If you missed the Wilson boat last Spring, then you’re probably better off looking elsewhere to address your WR room due to the exorbitant cost it would no doubt take to acquire the budding superstar.

Skyy Moore – Kansas City Chiefs

• Age: 23
• 2022 Finish: WR123
• Overall Rank: 117
• Rank: WR55

A 2^nd round selection in the 2022 NFL draft, Skyy Moore’s value shot up rookie draft boards a year ago. Landing in the high-octane offense that is the Kansas City Chiefs, Moore joined the team at a time when they were saying goodbye to former All Pro wide out, Tyreek Hill. Between the departure of Hill and the early capital invested in Moore, many dynasty managers were willing to reach and grab Moore in round one of rookie drafts throughout the 2022 off-season. While his story is far from written, Moore’s 2022 campaign was a disaster from a production standpoint. Despite playing in an offense with little WR depth, Moore never once played more than 46% of the team’s snaps as a rookie. His poor PFF receiving grade of 67.6 (58^th among WRs) backed up his poor statistical output of 22/250/0. Finishing outside the top 100 WRs, Moore was never a serious candidate to crack a fantasy manager’s starting lineup at any point during the 2022 season.  

Transitioning to 2023, the Chiefs let WRs Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman depart for the AFC East. However, the team went back into the 2^nd round of the draft and selected Rashee Rice out of SMU. Kadarius Toney, who joined the team mid-season, will also be entering his 2^nd year in the system and former Giants’ WR, Richie James, is joining the fold on a 1-year deal. During the first year of the post Tyreek Hill era, Mahomes spread the ball around, which limited the upside for every pass catcher not named Travis Kelce. Smith-Schuster lead the team’s receiver group in scoring but finished just WR40 on a points per game basis. Kelce will remain the team’s target leader, and it is difficult to pin down exactly who will emerge as the team’s top WR.

Commish’s Advice: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Sell. Typically, I wouldn’t be looking to move on from a distressed asset after just one year, but in this case, I’d prefer to get out while I still can. Moore had every opportunity to carve out a role on potent offense that was devoid of WR talent and just didn’t do it as a rookie.  But what has me even more concerned are the actions the team has taken since selecting Moore in the 2022 Draft. Between the trade for Toney, the selection of Rice and the singing of James, I see another messy WR situation that will be difficult for fantasy managers to predict from week to week. In what appears to be a classic case of the landing spot causing a player’s value to inflate too high, Moore probably shouldn’t have been selected in round one of rookie drafts to begin with. If I can move on from Moore of an early to mid 2^nd round selection in 2023 rookie drafts I’d happily re-roll the dice here.