The 2022 WR Class 1 Year Later - Part 2

Each Spring, Dynasty managers dive headfirst into rookie scouting mode. We memorize heights and weights, 40-times and broad jumps and regurgitate them like they represent a guaranteed path to fantasy gold on the horizon. Unfortunately, differentiating between hits and misses is a much trickier exercise than simply combing over a player’s draft profile. When we move on to a new crop of players each year, what does that mean for the previous year’s class? Should we assume that we know all there is to know about the 2022 class because they have a year of experience under their belt? Of course not. In this series we’ll look back at the WRs selected around the top 12 in rookie drafts in last season and recap their first NFL campaign and project what 2023 has in store for this crop of players.

Some Context:

• All scoring finishes reflect a half PPR format.
• Rankings are based off 1QB data from Dynasty League Football’s (DLF) top 250.
• Player ages indicate the age that the player will be at the conclusion of the 2023 fantasy season.

Chris Olave – New Orleans Saints

• Age: 23
• 2022 Finish: WR25
• Overall Rank: 18
• Pos. Rank: WR11

One of two standout Ohio State Buckeyes selected in the 1^st round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Olave came out of the gate strong, posting 6 double digit outings in his first 10 games. Following the hot start, Olave seemed to hit the “rookie wall,” as he failed to produce more than 8.7 fantasy points between weeks 12 and 17. Despite a less than optimal finish from a scoring perspective, an up and down rookie campaign is to be expected from most first year NFL players. Cracking the 1,000-yard mark and finishing WR25 on the season, Olave’s 10.4 points per game was the highest mark among rookie WRs, including former college teammate Garret Wilson. Such production is nothing to take lightly, considering he was catching passes from below average signal callers in Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston.

Fortunately for Olave, the Saints are turning the reins over to 9-year veteran Derek Carr. An undeniable upgrade, Carr has demonstrated an ability to crank out WR1s. Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Hunter Renfrow and Davante Adams all posted a top 12 scoring finish catching passes in a Carr driven (pun intended) offense. As far as target competition is concerned, Olave enters 2023 as the clear-cut top option in the Saints passing attack. Sharing the WR room with the likes of Tre’Quan Smith, Rashid Shaheed, James Washington, rookie A.T. Perry and the oft-injured Michael Thomas, Olave should have no problem establishing himself as the alpha on the bayou for the foreseeable future.

Commish’s Advice: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Hold. One of the easier calls to make in this entire series, it would take a massive return to consider moving on from Olave at this stage of his career. Something in the neighborhood of 2 first round picks plus a sweetener on top should be the bare minimum to even start a conversation about moving on from an Olave share this off-season. On our hands here is a budding star who produced in year one who is also getting a QB upgrade. At just 23 years of age, he is roster-able in any build and can be a reliable producer for a contender this year, or a cornerstone piece of a multi-year rebuild.

Jameson Williams – Detroit Lions

• Age: 22
• 2022 Finish: WR152
• Overall Rank: 69
• Pos. Rank: WR34

A torn ACL during the 2021 NCAA National Championship Game did not deter the Lions from selecting the Crimson Tide product with the 12^th overall pick in the 2022 draft. In what was fully expected to be a “redshirt” season, Williams was unable to practice with his teammates until late November and played on 25% or less of the team’s snaps in all 6 games he appeared in down the stretch. Making the jump from college to the NFL is difficult for any receiver, but missing OTAs, training camp, the pre-season and 12 weeks of the regular season before joining a team with playoff aspirations was always going to result in a grade of “incomplete” for Williams’ 2022 campaign.

For all the valid excuses for his lack of production in 2022, it is perfectly fair to criticize Williams for his poor decision making that will see him miss the first 6 contests of his sophomore season for violating the league’s gambling policy. While less than ideal, it is important to remember that we are talking about a 6-week (non-injury related) absence for a 22-year-old WR. This represents a drop in the bucket for what dynasty managers hope will be a long and productive career.  As of this writing, the team has done nothing to add to the WR room following the suspension and the depth chart currently consist of target magnet Amon-Ra St. Brown, 33-year-old Marvin Jones, Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, Trinity Benson and 7^th round rookie Antonie Green. What we have here is a case of the Lions telling us with their actions that they remain bullish on Williams’ ability to make a meaningful contribution in 2023.

Commish’s Advice: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Buy. Buy. BUY. Let’s be clear here. If you were optimistic on Williams having a quality 2023 season this suspension should not only do nothing to deter you from attempting to acquire him, but it likely created a buying opportunity that you should be capitalizing on. Williams is in line to slot in as the number 2 option in a Detroit offense that surprisingly finished number 5 in the league in scoring a season ago. Even if the unit regresses in scoring, there is still room for Williams to carve out a fantasy viable role in this offense in 2023. Such an outcome would see his value skyrocket and allow managers to either roster a productive young WR or flip him for a profit if they choose.