Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Easy Money – Individual picks with a high probability of success
Pick 1: Cairo Santos over 6.5 kicking points
Santos has attempted 3 field goals in 3 of his last 4 games and the Lions have yielded at least 2 field goals in each of their last 3 contests. With the over under sitting at 48.5, Vegas sees points getting put up on the board in Mo Town. Give me Santos to bang home at least 7 total points in the Ford Field Dome to kick off your Turkey Day.
Pick 2: Caleb Williams over 225 yards passing
Despite entering this contest on a 5-game losing streak, Williams has quietly been turning the corner over the past 2 weeks. He had Chicago set up for a game winning field goal in week 11 and brought his team back from 14 down to send their week 12 game to OT while throwing for 340 yards in the process. Detroit’s top scoring offense will keep the Bears behind on the scoreboard, which will lead to a pass happy game script in the 2nd half.
Same Game Parlay – A combination of picks that’ll juice up your return
The Appetizer: Alternate over 44, Jahmyr Gibbs 100+ Rushing & Receiving yards, Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD
A 10 point spread leads me to believe that the Lions will be cruising in this game. Look for Detroit to attack Chicago on the ground behind PFF’s number 1 ranked offensive line. With David Montgomery banged up, I see Gibbs carrying the mail on a short week, going over the century mark on total yards and hitting the end zone.
Parlay 2:
The Main Dish: Caleb Williams over 0.5 INTs, DJ Moore 70+ Receiving Yards, DJ Moore Anytime TD
Williams hasn’t thrown an interception in his last 5 games, but the Lions offense will put the pressure on the rookie to pass somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 times in this game. Look for Williams to toss one to the other team, but also connect with his number 1 WR early and often as well.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Easy Money – Individual picks with a high probability of success
Pick 1: Cowboys -3.5
Admittedly, this line smells a bit fishy, but I’m reeling this big tuna in with both hands. Both teams are rolling with back up QBs, but the Cowboys have shown some fight in each of their last 2 games, while the Giants are the definition of a sinking ship that are in desperate need of a good house cleaning. Factor in the game being played in Dallas, and I’m rolling with the favorite to cash in the late afternoon window.
Pick 2: Rico Dowdle Over 70 Rushing Yards
Featuring an 84% share of the RB touches last week, Dowdle has taken a firm grasp on this Cowboys backfield. On the other side of the ball, the Giants have allowed the 3rd most yards on the ground in 2024. Lean into the volume Dowdle should get in a quality week 13 matchup.
Same Game Parlay – A combination of picks that’ll juice up your return
The Appetizer: Tommy DeVito over 0.5 INTs, Over 2 Field Goals Made 1st Half, Alternate Over 30.5
As my Co-Host Ethan Weaver said on this week’s show, “Tommy DeVito ain’t it.” Look for him to get the season of giving going by gifting the Cowboys Defense a turnover that ends up in AT&T Stadium’s big red Salvation Army bucket. While I’m confident that Dallas takes care of business, neither of these offenses are world beaters. Shave a TD off of over under and roll with an alternate 30.5 over that features a few early field goals.
The Main Dish: Rico Dowdle First TD Scorer and Wan’Dale Robinson Over 3.5 Receptions
Leaning into Dowdle having a big day by punching in the game’s first TD. When the Giants do attempt to pass, they’ll need to make things as simple as possible for DeVito. Robinson’s 4.3 average depth of target should make him a high-volume safety valve in this pillow punching offense.
Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers
Easy Money – Individual picks with a high probability of success
Pick 1: Jonnu Smith 40+ Receiving Yards
Jonnu Smith has enjoyed a career resurgence in recent weeks. Eclipsing 45 yards in each of the team’s last 4 games, Smith is taking advantage of matchups as opposing defenses are keyed in on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Expect that trend to continue during the Thanksgiving night cap.
Pick 2: Tyreek Hill Anytime TD
While the eye-popping receiving totals haven’t been there for Tyreek this season, he has quietly been heating up in recent weeks. Hitting pay dirt in 2 of his last 3 games, The Dolphins will have to pass to keep up with Green Bay at Lambeau. Despite a tough matchup, I’m taking the plus odds on a talented WR who is starting to find his groove late in the season.
Same Game Parlay – A combination of picks that’ll juice up your return
The Appetizer: Josh Jacob & De’Von Achane Anytime TDs and over 47.5
A fun parlay without any hard-hitting analysis behind it. Both starting RBs hit the end zone, then we root for points in bunches.
The Main Dish: Jaylen Waddle Under 44.5 Receiving Yards, Jayden Reed 50+ Receiving Yards, Tucker Kraft Anytime TD, Over 2 1st Half Field Goals.
Swinging for the fences with this one. Waddle regresses to what he’s been most of the season after a week 12 explosion. Reed does just enough to get to 50 yards. The kickers are busy early and Kraft hits the end zone for the 4th time in 6 games.
All Day Parlay – A parlay featuring 1 pick from each game on the Thanksgiving slate
Parlay 1: Cowboys -2.5, Lions -7, Packers Moneyline
Teasing down the spreads for the Cowboys and Lions and playing it safe with GB to win outright.
Parlay 2: Anytime TD for each of the following: Jahmyr Gibbs, Rico Dowdle, De’Von Achane
Running backs have a field day on Thanksgiving!
Subscribe for more to never miss a moment of Sunday Surefire Content
https://www.youtube.com/@SundaySurefire
