Post Draft Winners & Losers: Wide Receivers

With the 2022 NFL Draft and the bulk of the major free agency moves now in the rear-view mirror, it is time to examine which NFL veterans are likely to benefit from the flurry of off-season activity and which ones have taken a hit in value. We continue our Post Draft Winners & Losers Series with the Wide Receiver position.

Winners:

Darnell Mooney – Chicago Bears

Ever have a part of your house be badly in need of a makeover, but decide to just keep putting the project off a year? Then another year, and another one? Well, the McCaskey family certainly knows a thing or two about that. The ownership group stood by while their entire franchise eroded season after season until it came to the point where they finally realized that the on-field product was no longer salvageable. Fantasy managers of course knew this 2 years ago. Such a shame more of us don’t have a few billion dollars laying around to purchase a team of our own. The current remodeling of the Bears’ franchise can be described in no other terms but a take down to the studs. What was torn down you ask? Oh, just the GM, Head Coach, Offensive & Defensive Coordinators, defensive center piece Kahlil Mack, and former pro bowl WR Allen Robinson. Nothing to see here. And the studs that are remaining? Second year signal caller Justin Fields and the team’s leading receiver from a year ago, Darnell Mooney. That’s about it folks.

Coming off an 81/1055/4 season, Mooney slots in as the team’s unquestioned alpha WR heading into the 2022 season. Breaking the 1,000-yard mark in his second pro season was quite the accomplishment for Mooney considering what an absolute dumpster fire Matt Nagy’s 27^th ranked offense (in terms of points scored) had devolved into during his 4^th and final season at the helm. Make no mistake, what I like most about Mooney is the fact that the team did almost nothing to bring in any type of meaningful competition for targets. The Bears WR depth chart behind Mooney currently consists of: Tajae Sharpe, Dante Pettis, David Moore, 25-year-old rookie Velus Jones and Byron Pringle, who last month was arrested for reckless driving with a suspended license. 3^rd year Tight End Cole Kmet showed flashes of being a play maker during his sophomore campaign, but there are more than enough footballs flying around to support he and Mooney this season. In a perfect world, new Head Coach Matt Eberflus will likely look to establish a run first offense to take some pressure off his young Quarterback. However, with the Bears’ defense in need of a multi-year rebuild, Chicago will find themselves playing from behind often this year and that is when Fields and Mooney can feast from a fantasy perspective. Remember, for fantasy purposes, we couldn’t care less if the team wins games or not. What we want is the players on our teams to get is one thing. Volume, and lots of it. There will inevitably be ups and downs being attached to a bottom half of the league offense and an inexperienced QB, but Mooney should end up being a high end WR2 this season with the potential to sneak into the back end WR1 range if he can establish himself in the red zone. 

Amari Cooper – Cleveland Browns

Is it just me, or does it feel like this guy has been in the NFL forever? Somehow only 28 years old this season, Cooper is in his prime and will be taking his talents to Cleveland, joining forces with dynamic signal caller Deshaun Watson. Sharing the Browns’ WR room with the likes of Donovan Peoples-Jones, Anthony Schwartz and rookie David Bell, Cooper is the locked in top receiver on the depth chart. To say that Watson has turned his number one WR into fantasy gold during his career would be an understatement. In PPR formats, Watson turned DeAndre Hopkins into a top 4 WR in points scored in each of his first 3 seasons, including number 1 overall in 2017. Following Hopkins departure, Will Fuller assumed the top pass catching role and posted WR8 numbers through the first 11 weeks of the 2020 season before being suspended for the remainder of the campaign. Following Fuller’s suspension, journeyman Brandin Cooks slotted into the WR1 role and saw no less than 7 targets per week to close out the campaign. In Watson’s 4 years as a starting QB, his top wide receiver has seen just under 10 targets per game. For reference, only Cooper Kupp, Dionte Johnson, Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson were fed the ball at a higher rate a season ago. Add it all up and what we have here is a talent WR with essentially no competition for targets stepping into an offense led by a talented quarterback that isn’t afraid to pepper his top WR with target volume.

That’s enough of a deep dive into target counts for one segment. For all the upside that a Watson to Cooper connection can bring for fantasy purposes, the elephant in the room is a looming suspension for the Browns’ new franchise QB. A lengthy suspension of any kind could certainly put severe cap on this tandem’s ceiling in 2022, but if you’re playing dynasty, time is on your side. Cooper has 3 years remaining on his contract that will likely see him remain in Cleveland for most of his prime years.  Dynasty managers may need to exercise patience in the early going, but if you’re willing to wait it out in the short term, the long-term upside in this partnership is undeniable. For the moment, pencil Cooper in as a mid-range WR2, with the knowledge that good news on the Watson front would vault him into the top 12 at his position.

Losers

Tyreek Hill – Miami Dolphins

In fairness, it almost sounds harsh to call someone who was traded for a haul of draft picks and immediately inked a 4-year $120 million ($72.2 of which is guaranteed) contract a loser. Almost. Don’t get me wrong, Hill will have $100 bills falling out of his pockets on South Beach, but I don’t see the stat sheet being stuffed at the same level it was in Kansas City at any point ever again. Overnight, Hill finds himself moving on from a partnership of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes and landing with rookie head coach Mike McDaniel and unproven youngster Tua Tagovailoa. To expand on that a bit further, Andy Reid is considered one of the great offensive minds in the history of the league, and McDaniel is a first-time coach whose success as an assistant came from implementing San Francisco’s rushing attack in recent years. As for the QBs, Mahomes’ rocket arm allowed Hill to use his cheetah like speed to run under just about everything thrown his way. Tua on the other hand?  There are questions if he can accurately deliver strikes of more than 20 yards downfield with any consistency. Speaking of McDaniel’s history of establishing a high-level running game, did you see what the Dolphins have done with their backfield this off-season? It felt as if Miami brought in a new running back every other week, signaling that the team plans to utilize a run heavy approach in the new regime’s inaugural season.

If the coach and quarterback situation wasn’t enough of a downgrade, Hill is goes from being the only reliable WR on his team to a more crowded situation. Sophomore Jaylen Waddle nabbed 104 receptions on 140 targets in his rookie season and demonstrated an ability to get open close to the line of scrimmage, averaging 9.8 yards per reception. The Dolphins also brought in former Cowboy Cedrick Wilson in free agency. Wilson isn’t a household name but proved to be a capable 3^rd receiver finishing with a 45/602/6 line playing alongside Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb a season ago. And let’s not forget tight-end Mike Gesicki staying in the picture on a one-year deal, which will further muddy the waters regarding how the target volume will be distributed.  Is all this to say that Hill’s days as a useful fantasy asset are done altogether? Certainly not. His all-world speed makes him a big play waiting to happen, and at any moment he can go from being invisible to tilting a fantasy matchup on its’ head in the blink of an eye. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, the days of him finishing as a high end WR1 are now firmly in the rearview mirror. While there is nothing wrong with rostering a mid-range WR2, the cost to acquire Hill in both redraft and dynasty remains steep. Currently being selected in round 2 of redraft leagues and likely demanding multiple first round picks in dynasty formats, I am firmly out on Hill at his current value.

Hunter Renfrow – Las Vegas Raiders

After what felt like a 10-year career with the Clemson Tigers, Hunter Renfrow was a fantasy after thought during his first two seasons in the NFL. Year 3, however, was a different story altogether. Coming off a 103/1038/9 season, Renfrow was a league winning player down the stretch and finished WR11 in PPR formats. Fast forward a few months and Renfrow’s 2022 outlook appears entirely different than it did at the end of last season due to a busy off-season for the Raiders. A regime change has seen Dave Ziegler and Josh McDaniels take over as the GM and head coach respectively. The pair’s first order of business? Light the NFL world on fire by acquiring back-to-back first team All-Pro receiver Davante Adams from the Green Bay Packers and signing him to a 5-year $140 million extension. The move reunites Adams with his college quarterback, Derek Carr whom he lit up the Mountain West with in their 2 seasons together. Adams proved to be an absolute target hog in Green Bay, posting an average of 10.5 or more looks per game in each of the last 4 seasons.  To put it plainly, you don’t give up valuable draft picks and a massive extension to a player that you don’t plan to utilize. While Adams will also fall into the same category as Tyreek Hill in terms of not being fantasy worthy of his average draft position, he will certainly be the top WR in the Raiders’ offense.

We all know Adams is a stud, but an NFL offense can certainly produce multiple fantasy viable pass catchers, right? Of course. However, the forgotten man in Las Vegas this season is former pro bowl tight end Darren Waller. Exceeding 90 catches and 1,100 yards in 2019 and 2020, Waller has shown that he’s a force to be reckoned with healthy. Unfortunately for Waller, a week 12 injury on Thanksgiving night derailed his 2021 season. The main benefactor of that injury? None other than Hunter Renfrow. Between weeks 12 and 18, Renfrow saw either 9 targets or caught a TD in 5 of his final 7 games to close out the regular season. This stretch of time where he was the only reliable target able to take the field mostly fueled his fantasy breakout season. Between Waller returning and Adams coming into the fold there are suddenly a lot of mouths of feed in sin city.  If his pass catching running mates remain healthy, I find it hard to believe that Renfrow finishes any higher than a back end WR2. Again, there is nothing wrong with that type of player on your roster, but it’s unlikely you’ll be able to acquire Renfrow for anything short of a first-round pick. Personally, I’d rather invest that type of draft capital elsewhere if I’m looking to make a run at a championship this season.