The first week of August is in the books and the Hall of Fame game is in the rearview mirror. We did it everyone. It’s officially football season! Of course, that means draft season is also upon us. This quick hitting piece will touch on players that I view to be likely to outperform their current ADP and give you an edge in your weekly matchups during the 2022 season.
Ever Important Context
- Overall and positional rankings are based on current FantasyPros Average Draft Position (ADP)
- Valuations assume a 1QB and Half PPR scoring format
- Identified players carry 3rd round or later ADP in 12 team leagues
Wide Receiver
Mike Williams – LA Chargers
ADP 51 – WR19 Overall
If you’ve listened to any of our podcasts for any length of time, you’ve probably heard me say that I can’t get enough “exposure to high scoring offenses.” While the Chargers’ offense ranked 5th in the league in points per game a season ago, I know what you’re thinking when it comes to Williams. The Jekyll and Hyde nature of his game has made him a polarizing fantasy WR during his 5-year NFL career. To be frank, that style of play doesn’t sit well with every fantasy manger. Look, I get it. One week he’s going nuclear and almost single handedly winning you matchups, and the next you’re cursing his name after a 1 catch for 18 yards performance. Entering his age 28 season, Williams is now in the prime of his career, and was rewarded with a new 3-year contract that will tie him to up and coming super star QB Justin Herbert for the foreseeable future. While perennial WR1 Keenan Allen is likely to lead the Chargers in targets, this offense showed us a season ago that it could produce multiple fantasy relevant pass catchers. Coming off a WR10 finish in 2021, Williams outscored his counterpart (who is now on the wrong side of 30) in half PPR leagues a year ago and can be selected at a 2-round discount at the moment. The bottom line on Williams for me is this. If Herbert really is as good as we think he is, one of his pass catchers is about to erupt on the TD front this year. If I’m putting my chips on anyone wearing powder blue to accomplish that feat, it’s the 6’4” monster of a WR with game breaking ability who has multiple seasons of 9+ TDs on his resume.
Running Back
Cam Akers – LA Rams
ADP 31 – RB16 Overall
Staying put in the City of Angels, we pay a visit to the defending Super Bowl Champion Rams. The most expensive of the players discussed here, Akers is settling into the middle of the 3rd round at the onset of draft season. Why can you get the top RB attached to 2021’s 8th highest scoring offense in round 3? Well, unless you’ve been living under a rock for over a year, you know that Akers tore his Achilles prior to the start of training camp in 2021. Although initially believed to be a season ending injury, Akers was able to return to the field after just 5 months and suit up for each of the 4 games during the Rams’ Super Bowl run. While you’d think this would have significantly improved Akers’ draft stock, it actually has done the opposite. His subpar 2.6 yards per carry (YPC) in the playoffs have left fantasy mangers wondering if we will ever see Akers regain the flashes of excellence that we saw from him late in his 2020 rookie season. But was his YPC really as subpar as it appears? During the 2021 playoffs, no Rams RB ran exceeded 3.1 YPC, indicating that the team as a whole had problems generating a push in the run game. Factor in that Akers was thrust into high stakes games with few game reps under his belt and going up against multiple strong run defenses and you have a recipe for short term inefficiency. Now more than a full year removed from his injury Akers will be sharing the backfield with Darrell Henderson and rookie Kyren Williams. The lack of notable additions indicate that the Rams are telling us with their actions that they fully expect Akers to resume the role of the team’s top back. What you’re looking for in RBs early in your fantasy drafts are backs attached to offenses that will be frequenting the Red Zone. In 2021 the Rams finished 3rd in Red Zone drives, and figure to live in that area again this upcoming season. With double digit TD upside working in his favor, I’m happy to take a swing for the fences in this territory with Akers.
Quarterback
Trey Lance – San Francisco 49ers
ADP 99 – QB13
Looking for this season’s version of 2021 Jalen Hurts? Here he is folks. The FCS product finally gets his chance to take over the reins from veteran Jimmy Garoppolo in the bay area. Having three first round draft picks invested in Lance, the 49ers have all the motivation in the world to make sure he succeeds at the NFL level. While I’m admittedly skeptical that Lance will be a long-term viable NFL starter, his playing style has me pushing my chips all in to obtain shares of him at his current redraft ADP. A true Konami Code Quarterback, Lance excelled as both a passer and a rusher in his lone season as a full-time starter at North Dakota State. Rushing for a whopping 1,100 rushing yards and 14 scores, his style of play will keep him very fantasy relevant for as long as he’s under center. Given the steep investment made in him, the QB job is all but a lock to remain firmly in his possession for the entirety of the season. As great as his rushing upside appears to be, let’s not forget the skill position players he is working with. Deebo Samuel has finally ironed out a new contract that will see him remain in town for the next 3 years. George Kittle is a two-time All-Pro TE who is just now entering his prime. And lest we forget the mercurial Brandon Aiyuk who, despite a slow start, finished WR13 overall between weeks 9-18. Still not sold? Well, the beauty of a 1QB league is the depth at the position. If you can stomach grabbing Lance in round 9, you can always target a late round veteran QB to stash on your bench in the event Lance flounders. Personally, there is more than enough upside when it comes to Lance at this stage of the draft for me to feel confident in rolling with him as my starting QB from day 1.
Tight End
Irv Smith Jr. – Minnesota Vikings
ADP 155 – TE15
This time a year ago, it seemed as if Irv Smith was primed to take over the top TE spot in Minnesota following the departure of veteran Kyle Rudolph. A pre-season torn meniscus later, Irv found himself on the shelf and Tyler Conklin enjoyed his best pro season to date, posting receiving totals of 61/593/3 on the season. Fortunately for Smith, Conklin has made his way east, inking a 3-year $20 million contract with the Jets. With a year of recovery under his belt, Irv Smith once again finds himself atop the TE depth chart in Minnesota. This time, however, he is no longer playing in NFL fossil Mike Zimmer’s run heavy offense. Instead, first year head coach Kevin O’Connell (fresh off winning a super bowl with the Rams) is now at the helm in the Twin Cities and looks to feature a much more pass friendly attack. Young superstar Justin Jefferson is no doubt the top pass catcher in town, but second banana Adam Thielen is no spring chicken. At 32 years old, Thielen is coming off another injury shortened campaign, and has missed a total of 11 games over the past 3 seasons. Though double-digit TDs have saved his fantasy seasons during each of the past two campaigns, we know that father time is undefeated and is knocking at his door. Should another injury occur, or Thielen simply starts to look his age, Smith would stand to be the main benefactor in the red area. As for Smith’s competition for target in the TE room? Backups Johnny Mundt, Ben Ellefson and Zach Davidson have logged a combined career receiving total of 11/103/0. This is yet another example of a team telling us with their actions that they have a high level of confidence in a player at the top of their depth chart. A recent thumb injury no doubt has contributed to his 13th round ADP, but he is expected back for week 1. Given his talent level and lack of competition for targets at his position, Irv has plenty of opportunity to drastically outperform his current cost and become a mainstay of fantasy lineups this season.
