The 2024 NFL Draft has concluded. Over the last 3 days, 257 players heard their name called at the podium in Motown. Of that group, we focus on the 12 players selected in Sunday Surefire’s hot off the presses dynasty mock draft. Rounds 2 and 3 will be covered during this week’s podcast.
Context:
- 12 team TE Premium Super Flex League
- Full PPR for WRs & RBs
- 1.75 PPR for TEs
1.01 Caleb Williams – Chicago Bears
Nothing spicy here. The first player off the board on Thursday night got snagged the moment our draft board opened. Williams walks into the best situation in recent memory for a rookie signal caller selected at the top of the draft. Between DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet and the newly drafted Rome Odunze, the Bears possess an embarrassment of riches at the skill positions. Look for Williams to land among the top 12 of most expert rankings in short order.
1.02 Marvin Harrison Jr. – Arizona Cardinals
The first non QB selected in the NFL draft, MHJ jumps every signal caller not named Caleb Williams in this exercise. And with good reason. The now former Buckeye boasts an incredible skill set, a productive college track record and, quite literally, Hall of Fame genetics. Pencil Harrison Jr. in as the immediate target leader in Arizona for the foreseeable future and a top 10 dynasty WR right now.
1.03 Malik Nabers – New York Giants
In just about any other class, Nabers would find himself as the top receiver in consensus rookie rankings. While that was not meant to be in 2024, Nabers is far from a forgettable consolation prize. The Giants may not be a sexy landing spot, but the lack of shine that comes with being Daniel Jones’ number 1 option will be offset by volume, and plenty of it. Nabers will almost undoubtably lead the Giants in targets this season and given his ability to make plays with the ball in his hands, the quality of those targets may not be as big of an issue as some would perceive it to be.
1.04 Jayden Daniels – Washington Commanders
The 2nd player taken in the NFL draft comes off the board next. Following a stellar final college campaign, Daniels’ skillset should pair perfectly with Kliff Kingsbury’s system that saw dual-threat weapon, Kyler Murray, finish as a top 10 fantasy QB for 3 consecutive seasons between 2019 and 2021. Daniels has a wide range of outcomes as a pro, but his mobility makes him a true Konami Code weapon with an incredibly high fantasy ceiling.
1.05 Brock Bowers – Las Vegas Raiders
The only player ever to win the Mackey award twice, dynasty managers have been waiting for years to get their hands on Bowers. The relatively heavy TE premium no doubt played a factor in him rounding out the top 5 selections in this exercise. Bowers sharing the field with Michael Mayer may cause some to exercise caution, but let’s not over think this. Bowers is the superior pass catching weapon and was the first player selected during the Antonio Pierce era. The Raiders have plans for this young man, and so should dynasty players.
1.06 Drake Maye – New England Patriots
Mr. Prototype was the last QB taken to close the run on the position at the top of the NFL Draft. The new Patriots signal caller brings all the physical tools that former 1st round pick, Mac Jones, did not. But dynasty managers will have to exercise patience with Maye. It is not only in the realm of possibilities that Maye spends the entire 2024 campaign on the bench, but it’s probably the best thing for his development. 2023 saw the once proud Patriots record the lowest scoring points per game total of any team in the league since 2012. This team is a work in progress at best, but the organization went offense heavy in the draft, adding to that side of the ball with each of their first 4 selections. Don’t expect the world from Maye from day 1 but know that the wait very well could be worthwhile.
1.07 J.J. McCarthy – Minnesota Vikings
2024 is less than a third of the way over, but between the national championship, the top 10 selection, the QB friendly scheme and talent rich skill position players he now gets to call teammates, J.J. McCarthy is already having one hell of a calendar year. Where the possibility exists that Drake Maye is being set up to fail in New England, McCarthy has all the tools to succeed in Minnesota. As far as fantasy is concerned, he may not provide the rushing upside to finish QB1 overall, he very well could become a stable back-end top 12 producer for many years to come. Music to the ears of dynasty managers nabbing him in the middle of round 1.
1.08 Rome Odunze – Chicago Bears
The last of the “Big 3” WRs in this draft class forms a new “Big 3” in the Bears’ receiver room. Odunze will play from day 1 to be sure but will also have the opportunity to learn from seasoned pros DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Entering the final season of his contract at age 32, Allen doesn’t figure to be long for Chicago, but dynasty managers should know that Odunze’s 2024 production won’t pack quite the same punch as some of his peers in this loaded WR class. Assuming Caleb Williams pans out, Rome’s long-term ceiling is undeniably high.
1.09 Xavier Worthy – Kansas City Chiefs
If you look at 5 different dynasty rookie drafts, it is very possible that you see 5 different players selected in the 1.09 spot. Team needs will no doubt play a role in who is selected here, but don’t be shocked if the speed merchant that is Xavier Worthy flies off the board in your home leagues. The Texas product lands with the dynamic duo of All-World QB Patrick Mahomes and offensive genius, Andy Reid at the end of round 1. As if KC needed more help. The champs are in a great spot entering 2024, but they need to start thinking big picture with their offensive weapons and they did just that with this selection. Worthy has the tools to terrorize defenses in this scheme for a long time if he puts it all together at the next level.
1.10 Jonathan Brooks – Carolina Panthers
Ten picks deep, we finally see a running back come off the board. Not thought of as a sexy landing spot, the Panthers’ RB room currently features veterans Miles Sanders and Chubba Hubbard. 2024 represents the final year of Hubbard’s rookie contract and the final season of guaranteed money owed to Sanders. Recovering from a late season torn ACL, Brooks will likely play a back seat to the old guard for a large portion of upcoming campaign, but this backfield projects to be his entering 2025. We typically don’t like to exercise patience for RB production in the first round of dynasty drafts, but Brooks is worth the wait. If you can’t grab him in your drafts, don’t be afraid to buy low when he inevitably gets off to a “slow start” to his career as he recovers from injury on a rebuilding team.
1.11 Brian Thomas Jr. – Jacksonville Jaguars
After losing Calvin Ridley in free agency, the Jags pounced on Thomas in the middle of round 1. The LSU product has an incredibly high ceiling. His skill set as a downfield monster (17.3 yards per reception in 2023) should mesh well with Trevor Lawrence, whose 70 deep pass attempts were 5th among NFL quarterbacks last season. Sorry Gabe Davis, this is what a reliable deep threat looks like. Thomas Jr. has a wide range of outcomes at the next level, but on the rounds 1 and 2 borderline he’s worthy of a homerun cut.
1.12 Ladd McConkey – Las Angeles Chargers
After spending the majority of the off-season letting offensive weapons walk out the door, the Chargers finally bring one into the facility in the form of Ladd McConkey. The Georgia product never carried a passing offense for a full season in college but tested incredibly well at the Combine and turned heads at the Senior Bowl. Now he gets the opportunity to carve out a role as Justin Herbert’s go to target for what Bolts fan hope is a long time to come. The Chargers will no doubt be more run heavy than we’ve seen in the past but let’s not kid ourselves. They’ll let Herbert drop back and let it rip more than enough to support at least 1 high level fantasy producer.
