Dynasty Discussions: Young Bucks Vs. The Old Guard

An age-old question in dynasty. Do I ride with my veteran players for another year, or hit the eject button and grab young players and/or draft picks? Decisions, decisions. In this post we’ll cover the benefits and risks of both sides of this ever-important debate, as well as identify when the best opportunities to acquire players and rookie picks come about.

The Case for the Veterans

Yes, we’re playing dynasty. The long term absolutely matters, to some extent. But there not only isn’t anything wrong with targeting established NFL talent, but it may even be an easy decision to make. A common theme among dynasty leagues is the notion that running backs become sell candidates when they reach age 26 and wide receivers get to that point as they enter their late 20s. But does that mean that a player is useless once they hit that mark? Absolutely not. In fact, during the 2021 season 50% of the top 12 WRs were age 28 or older and 58% of top 12 RBs were age 26 or older. The reality is that “aging” players can win dynasty championships just like their younger counterparts can, and (in many cases) at a fraction of the cost.

The Case Against the Old Timers

In a sport as violent as football, the saying that “all good things must come to an end” is on full display every year. If Todd Gurley doesn’t have that expression tattooed somewhere on his body, he should. In the blink of an eye a player can go from being a cornerstone of your dynasty roster to obsolete overnight. While Gurley’s injury history is an extreme case, there are many examples of holding on to a player a year too long leading to a missed opportunity to recoup value on an expiring asset. Sometimes you’re better off taking the best offer on the table and starting over before you’re left holding the bag.

The Case for a Youth Movement

Anyone who knows anything about Dynasty knows that the most valuable commodity out there is a young and highly productive player. If you can collect enough of these guys, you can basically write your own ticket. You can roll with them for years to come and contend at the highest level for the foreseeable future, or you can flip one of them for a massive return of draft picks and/or untapped potential if you want. There also may come a time where you’ve been in contention for a long stretch of time, but you’ve decided that it’s time to rip the band aid off and rebuild. Dynasty managers that do this a year too early tend to rebound better in the long run than those who realize a year too late that the value of their aging players has deteriorated to the point where they’ve potentially added multiple years on to their inevitable rebuild.   

The Case Against the Kids

If we could all build our squads around Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, Najee Harris and Kyle Pitts we would. But the reality is that these guys are Unicorns, and chasing the next great thing in dynasty can be a fool’s errand. Much like evaluating talent can be difficult for career NFL executives, a dynasty rookie draft is a minefield that is challenging to navigate for even the most seasoned managers.  If you focus all of your energy on drafting and patiently waiting for your picks to develop, you’re bound to have your share of misses along the way. While there is something to be said for playing the long game and waiting for your opportunity to build a juggernaut, do you really want to wait 4 or 5 years for some of your draft picks to hopefully develop into producers before you can seriously contend for a championship? If you’ve had some success drafting quality players, it may be time to flip some current or future draft capital for a proven commodity that can help you win right now.

When do I trade my draft picks?

This one is simple. Typically, the best time to move on from a rookie draft pick is right before (or during if your league allows it) your league’s rookie draft. By this point, free agency and the NFL draft are in the rearview mirror, roles are easier to project, and prospect hype has reached a fever pitch. Picks that weren’t overly desirable even a month or two earlier can suddenly accrue in value immensely once the landing spots for the top rookies have been determined. If you’ve decided to target a veteran to put your team over the top for the upcoming season this is the time to flip a draft pick or two and go for it.

When do I trade my Veteran players?

The NFL offseason can be lonely place if you’re hanging on to an abundance of veteran players. When the next meaningful NFL game is 6 months away, many dynasty owners have the tendency to overvalue young players and draft picks. However, the good news is that as summer draws to a close and redraft season approaches the value of veteran players will rebound to a degree. Redraft season? I thought we are playing dynasty here? Oh, we are. But it’s more probable than not that your league mates are also partaking in redraft leagues each year. If they see that Dalvin Cook is still being selected in the first round in a redraft format their stance on not wanting to add a 27 year old RB to their dynasty roster for anything more than pennies on the dollar may change.

So, what’s the answer?

That’s the beauty of dynasty. There is no correct answer to this question. The most important factor of walking the tight rope of obtaining the right mix of veteran and young players is to understand how your league values players and draft picks. Like any other aspect of dynasty, trust your process and stay current with the ever-changing landscape that is the NFL.