The ever-turning wheel that is Dynasty Fantasy Football stops for no one. In the blink of an eye, a player can go from a cornerstone asset to prime a sell candidate. In the words of the famous Kenny Rogers song, the best dynasty players know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em. Covered in this series is a review of a player’s 2023 campaign and a guide to navigating when it’s time to buy and time to sell on said player based on the goals of a dynasty manager heading into 2024.
Context
- Player stats and positional finishes reflect a half PPR scoring format.
- Age reflects the year the player will be at the conclusion of the 2024 Season.
- Advanced metrics are gathered from Player Profiler.
Player Bio
- 2023 Positional Finish: WR32
- 2023 Points Per Game Finish: WR42
- 2024 Age: 29
- Contract Situation: Signed through 2025 with a potential Out following the 2024 season.
Selected in the 3rd round of the 2019 NFL Draft, Terry McLaurin can be viewed as one of the biggest WR draft bargains in recent memory. With 4 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons on his resume, Scary Terry has produced more than the Commanders could have hoped for at a 3rd round value. Despite his individual success, the 2022 Pro Bowler has been stuck with a Washington franchise that has yet to finish above .500 during his tenure with the team. As if there wasn’t enough negative energy surrounding the Nation’s Capital, the local team has a 29-53-1 record since 2019, good for 4th worst in the league over that time frame.
But enough about the Commanders being lost in the abyss, let’s dive into McLaurin’s 2023 campaign. With a stat line of 79/1,002/4 Terry more or less delivered what he typically does for fantasy managers. Finishing 2nd in the league in routes run and 18th in targets among WRs, Terry was kept busy in 2023. Sam Howell had no problem looking McLaurin’s way down the field as his 26 deep targets were good for WR8 overall. Now for the bad. His 1.62 fantasy points per targets (WR64) and .33 fantasy points per route run (WR58) hint at inefficiency. While his volume of routes run helped him overcome such inefficiencies, a mid-range WR3 scoring finish is not what fantasy managers were hoping for in 2023.
Truth be told on McLaurin, there is a lot to unpack. When examining his career to this point, the elephant in the room is the quality of QB play he has had to work with since entering the league. Catching balls from the likes of Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins, Colt McCoy, Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Garrett Gilbert, Carson Wentz, Same Howell and Jacoby Brissette is no easy task for any WR. In fact, an argument could be made that Terry has outperformed reasonable expectations given the signal callers he has been on the receiving end of. But help could be on the way. The team holds the number 2 pick in the 2024 NFL draft, ensuring that the Commanders can come away with one of the top QB prospects in this year’s crop. The future could be bright in Washington, but from what we’ve seen thus far, McLaurin has to be viewed as a moderate disappointment given the investment it has taken to acquire him in dynasty in recent years. With just one top 15 WR finish on his resume, McLaurin has left managers wanting more. Which begs the question. Where does he fit into the dynasty landscape half a decade into his career?
The case to keep McLaurin:
At this stage of his career, contending teams are the only ones who should be interested in McLaurin. He has remained fantasy viable for several years despite poor QB play and has done so without relying on touchdowns. With only one season of 5 + scores on his resume, he’s commanded enough targets to warrant starting in fantasy lineups in most formats. If the volume continues, he could be in line for a TD spike, which would likely see him outperform his career best WR14 finish. But touchdowns aside, His true value comes in deep leagues that start 3 WRs and/or multiple flex positions. In these formats, contending managers don’t have the luxury of fading productive players based on age as easily. If you play in such leagues McLaurin may be a hard player to move off of if you’re in it to win it in 2024.
The case to move McLaurin now:
Whether you are a top tier contender or about to embark on a full scale rebuild it’s worth putting McLaurin on the trade block to see if your league mates are interested in paying for his reputation. With age bias becoming more and more prevalent in dynasty, Terry turning 29 early in the 2024 season has the clock to recoup value on this player already ticking. Fortunately, there are some selling points here. His 4 straight 1,000-yard season have helped make him a household name on the fantasy landscape. But if you’ve had him on your roster during that time frame you know that he hasn’t been a consistent difference maker in your lineup from week to week. As football fans, when we hear the phrase 1,000-yard season we’re programed to think “wow that guy is awesome.” But in 2023, 28 players finished with over 1,000 receiving yards. Of those 28 players, any guesses as to where McLaurin slotted in? If you guessed 28th, you’d be correct. Just do the math folks. 1,000 yards in a season comes out to roughly 59 yards per game. In order for a player to return a productive fantasy day with 59 yards, they’ll almost certainly need to visit the end zone. In each of those four 1,000-yard seasons, Terry has never exceeded 5 scores.
What would the Commish do?
In super flex formats, if you can get a 2024 1st round pick in return, it’s time to sell. Admittedly, given the poor QB play he has been saddled with, it is difficult to truly be critical of McLaurin's lack of elite level production to this point. But in dynasty we have to place value on what we think a player will do moving forward. Could Drake Maye, Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels one day represent the QB upgrade the Washington pass catchers need to take a step up the fantasy pecking order? Yes, that is very much in the realm of possibilities. However, we don’t often see rookie quarterbacks support highly productive fantasy WRs. Since 2018, among rookie QBs who started at least 13 games, only Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud have supported a top 24 fantasy scoring receiver on a per game basis. To put it bluntly, attempting to thread tight needles like this one in dynasty can be a dangerous game. With McLaurin entering his age 29 season and very few rookie QBs producing highly productive WRs the time to move on from the Commanders’ top pass catching option is right now.
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