When it comes to the state of the running back position, we’ve been hearing the same thing for years at this point. It’s a committee league nowadays. At no point in NFL history has the value of a workhorse running back been diminished to the point that it has been in the modern NFL. In fact, when Kansas City hoisted the Lombardi Trophy last month, it marked the 9th occurrence in the last 10 seasons where the Super Bowl Champion did not have a 1,000-yard rusher on the roster. That said, the veteran RB pool of available talent is deeper this off-season than in any other in recent memory. Let’s examine the high-profile backs on the market and have some fun projecting where they might end up next season.
Saquon Barkley – Dallas Cowboys
If there’s one thing we know for certain, Jerry Jones loves to make as splash. What better way to energize the fanbase and address the team’s gaping need at tailback than adding the former Penn State product in free agency? For all the efficient production Tony Pollard was able to provide as part of a committee during his first 4 years in Dallas, a starring role did not suit him well. Saquon may not be the picture of health, but with 4 seasons of 1,200 or more yards from scrimmage on his resume, he has demonstrated the ability to be the engine of an NFL offense. Dallas finds themselves in a situation where the roster is ready to compete and adding a player of Barkley’s caliber could be the final piece of the puzzle in what Cowboys fans hope is a deep playoff run. Look for the Cowboys to restructure existing contracts (IE Dak Prescott’s $59 Million cap hit) to create the space necessary to add Barkley to the fold.
2024 Impact:
Joining a Dallas offense that finished number 1 in the league in points per game would be a home run situation for Barkley. Juxtapose that with Barkley’s current situation where the Giants have yet to finish in the top 15 in points per game since selecting him in 2018. With 4 RB1 finishes (half PPR) in 6 seasons of play in mediocre at best offenses, a trip to big D would do wonders for his 2024 outlook.
Josh Jacobs – Las Vegas Raiders
No spicy hot take here as the Raiders retain the 2022 rushing champion. Injuries marred his 2023 campaign, but at 26 years old, Jacobs should have enough tread left on the tires to help a middling Vegas squad move ball in what should be a revamped offense in the short term.
2024 Impact
What the Raiders offense will look like under new coordinator Luke Getsy is anyone’s guess. The former Bears OC preferred a committee approach during his time in Chicago, so it’s possible that Zamir White eats into Jacobs’ workload should he stick with the team. I do not project the Raiders to be in the top half of the league in scoring in 2024, so any significant time share would hurt Jacobs’ upside. Despite his age, he crossed the 1,500 career touch threshold last season, and the odometer is racking up fast, but he will find himself firmly in the top 15 RB conversation in 2024.
Derrick Henry – Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens finally pull the plug on the J.K. Dobbins experiment and bring in a bruiser to be the thunder to Lamar Jackson’s lightning. Rumors circulated last Fall that with the Titans sliding out of playoff contention that Henry may have been headed to Baltimore at the trade deadline, but no deal ended up materializing. With the Ravens abandoning the run no doubt playing a pivotal role in their AFC Championship loss at M&T Bank stadium, the team gets serious and adds King Henry to a rushing attack that finished number 1 in the NFL a season ago.
2024 Impact:
For the first time, Henry will play football on the wrong side of 30. However, we have yet to see signs of King Henry slowing down. Despite his advancing age, 2023 saw Henry finish 2nd in the league in rushing yards and he handled more carries than any other back in the league. Finishing 2nd in break away run rate, he showed he can still hit home runs despite playing in a Tennessee offense that was just 27th in the league in scoring. Add him to a Baltimore offense that will force defenses to account for the likes of Lamar Jackson on the ground as well as Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers in the receiving game and Henry could post the most efficient year of his career yet.
Austin Ekeler – Houston Texans
Coming off 3 top 6 RB finishes, injuries and a poor situation around him saw Ekeler finish as RB28 in half PPR scoring formats. Despite the underwhelming statistical output, Ekeler managed to finish 8th in the league with 4.02 yards created per touch, which tracks yardage beyond what the offensive line generated for the runner. Entering his age 29 season, Ekeler brings a veteran presence to a young and ascending Texans team. His dual-threat skillset as both a runner and a passer would give the CJ Stroud lead offense a dynamic it was missing a season ago. Having Stroud on a rookie contract for the next 4 years affords the Texans the luxury (4th most cap space in the NFL at the moment) of making a splash at a position that the modern NFL has deemed replaceable.
2024 Impact:
Gone are the days of selecting Ekeler in the top 5 of your redraft leagues but a change of scenery would probably be best for the former UDFA. But landing in an offense many expect to finish in the top 10 in 2024 could be just the boost the dual-threat back needs to remind the fantasy community just how productive he can be in the right situation.
Devin Singletary – New York Giants
In this exercise, Saquon Barkley’s departure has left a massive hole in Big Blue’s backfield. Singletary reunites with his former Buffalo Offensive Coordinator, Brian Daboll. Producing between 969 and 1,099 yards from scrimmage since being drafted in 2019, Singletary has been the model of consistency throughout his 5-year career. With many holes to fill on this roster, the Giants will be looking to address their RB spot on the cheap. Singletary agreed to a 1-year $2.75 million contract in 2023, and the Giants could be in on the Florida Atlantic product as a similar price point in 2024.
2024 Impact:
The Texans running it back with Singletary and Dameon Pierce would be the best possible outcome for Singletary’s fantasy outlook this year. A move to the Giants would make him a primary ball carrier but would also see him land in an offense that struggled mightily in 2023 to the tune of just 15.6 points per game, 30th in the NFL. Daniel Jones returning from injury should help the team take at least a small step towards relevance, but Singletary would likely be a volume play at best this season in a Giants uniform.
Tony Pollard – Philadelphia Eagles
Another case of a RB reuniting with a former offensive coordinator. In 2022, Pollard enjoyed a career year in an offense led by Kellen Moore, posting career highs in yards from scrimmage (1,378) and total TDs (12). Between taking on a lead role for the first time and recovering from a broken leg suffered the previous January, Pollard struggled in 2023. But a reunion with Moore and the opportunity to run behind Pro Football Focus’ number 1 ranked offensive line could be just the bounce back scenario Pollard needs heading into 2024.
2024 Impact:
Regardless of where Pollard calls home this season, 2023 showed us that he’s better suited for a committee role. While there are several backs involved in time shares that are fantasy viable, splitting touches can very easily put a cap on a player’s ceiling. Factor in that Jalen Hurts is an unstoppable force of nature at the goal line, it is unlikely that Pollard regains his top 10 RB form. There are worse landing spots out there, but managers are better off viewing Pollard as an RB2 when football resumes this Fall.
