2023 Rookie Wide Receiver Class

At long last, Spring is finally in the air. With the long winter, the NFL Combine and the frenzy of activity stemming from the onset of free agency in the rear-view mirror, it is finally draft season. With 2 weeks until Commissioner Roger Goddell walks to the podium (under a chorus of boos) to announce the first selection, this is the time of year that Dynasty Managers need to be in full blown scouting mode.

Some Context:

• Tiers are based on a combination of players’ athletic profiles and college production.
• Projected dynasty rookie draft ranges assume a 12 team 1QB format.
• Player comps are not a projection of future fantasy production, but rather a comparison to an NFL player with a similar skillset.

Tier 1

Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Ohio State

A year after bringing the dynasty community Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, the WR factory that is The Ohio State University produces another top end talent for the 2023 class. JSN’s sophomore campaign (alongside Wilson and Olave) was one for the record books. Dropping 95/1.606/9 Smith-Njigba made light work of the Big Ten in 2021. Following an injury riddled campaign in 2022, he makes his way to the NFL and is all but guaranteed to be a first-round selection come draft time. As his 6.57 3-cone drill (easily the best mark among WRs at the combine) may suggest, JSN should be a mismatch in the slot from day 1. At 6’1 196lbs, he demonstrated a willingness to go across the middle and catch the ball in tight windows, a trait that should endear him to any NFL QB fortunate enough to throw passes his way in 2023 and beyond. Draft JSN as the top WR off the board in your rookie drafts.

NFL Comp – Jarvis Landry

Tier 2

Zay Flowers – Boston College

A do it all play maker for the Eagles, Flowers was overlooked throughout the 2022 season due to playing for ACC cellar dweller Boston College. Between inept QB play and being the focal point of every defensive game plan each time he stepped on to the field, it’s makes one wonder if he would have been better off transferring to a better program for his senior season. But that’s not Flowers’ style. Rather than parachute into a better situation, Zay didn’t complain and put in the work scouts were looking for to improve his game. This included bulking up a bit, as the 5’9” WR weighed in at 182lbs, but managed to retain his speed, clocking in at 4.42 in the 40-yard dash. On the field, BC didn’t turn down many opportunities to get him the ball, as his 78/1,077/12 line would indicate. However, he did play too fast at times, which lead to unnecessary drops. Where he goes in the draft remains to be seen, as he’s been mocked anywhere between the end of round 1 to the middle for round 2. Such draft capital would make him an intriguing option in the middle of the first round of dynasty drafts this Spring.

NFL Comp – Travis Benjamin

Jordan Addison – USC

The 2021 Biletnikoff award winner, erupted for 100/1,593/17 as a sophomore catching passes from Kenny Pickett. Following Pickett’s departure to the NFL, Addison transferred to USC for his final college campaign. While 2022 was not the statistical season Addison or the Trojans were looking for, he finds himself among the top WRs in this class, nonetheless. Running a 4.49 40-yard dash, a 34” vertical jump and 10’2” Broad jump, Addison didn’t blow up the combine, but did enough to keep him in tier 2. An intelligent WR with strong footwork and an ability to run a variety of routes, Addison should be a productive player at the next level if he can keep his routes on time against physical defensive backs. Addison will likely never be a truly elite fantasy WR, but in the right spot should develop into fantasy relevant option. If he comes off the board by round 2, expect him to be selected in the middle of the first round in dynasty.

NFL Comp – Tyler Lockett

Quentin Johnston – TCU

In a class filled with what would traditionally be considered “undersized” WRs, Johnston’s 6’3” 208lb frame breaks that mold. His 40.5” vertical jump and 11’2 broad jump at the Combine and a 4.49 40-yard dash at his pro day neatly check off the athletic testing boxes. If you like to swing for the upside in the middle of the first round of your rookie drafts, then this is the prospect for you. With Johnston’s athleticism, and ability to make plays after the catch, we could easily look back at the 2023 class and say that he was the best WR to come out of this group. The catch? He also carries the potential to possess an extremely low floor. Boasting an 11.8% drop rate, Johnston, the consistency of his hands have to be a cause for concern at the next level. Look for Johnston to be off the board by the end of day 2, which will slot him into the mid-late 1^st round of rookie drafts.

NFL Comp – Alshon Jeffery

Tier 3

Jalin Hyatt – Tennessee

Another athletic WR, the 6’0” 176lb Hyatt posted a 4.4 40-yard dash, 40” vert and 11’3” broad jump at the Combine. In 2023, he parlayed those measurables into a monster 67/1,267/15 line for a Tennessee team that finished 6^th in the Nation in 2022. An explosive play maker, Hyatt’s speed will put fear into opposing defenses, and his willingness to block on the perimeter should help keep him on the field in base offensive sets that employ at least 3 WRs in just about any landing spot. Hyatt certainly possesses fantasy upside, but his limited route tree and inconsistencies in contested catch situations could make for a low floor from week-to-week. Landing spot and draft capital invested in Hyatt will go a long way in determining where Hyatt ends up coming off the board in rookie drafts. For now, pencil him into the late 1^st round of dynasty drafts.

NFL Comp – DeSean Jackson

Cedric Tillman – Tennessee

Sticking in the Volunteer State, Tillman, and teammate Jalin Hyatt wore the same uniform, but certainly won’t be getting mistaken for one another any time soon. At 6’3” 215lbs, Tillman is a big, bodied target who relied on physicality to win at the college level. Possessing reliable hands, a wide catch radius and the ability to bring the ball down in traffic, Tillman could prove to be a jump ball champion as a pro.  Where Hyatt was the burner for the Vols, Tillman doesn’t possess the same speed, posting a 4.54 40-yard dash at the Combine. Additionally, he needs to show he can stay on the field, as his 5-year college career saw him appear in just 24 total games. With the limited sample size, it’s hard to see Tillman being anything more than a late day 2 pick in the NFL Draft. I’m on board to take a shot on his upside in the middle of round 2 in rookie drafts.

NFL Comp – Michael Pittman Jr.

Josh Downs – UNC

One of the smaller WRs in the class, Downs stands just 5’9” and weighed in at 171lbs. But that did not stop him from wreaking havoc on the ACC over the past two seasons, posting a combined 195/2,364/19 line between 2021 & 2022. Relying on his speed and quickness to win at the college level, he also brings special teams value in the way of a returner. As his small frame may indicate, he struggled at times to get off the line when pressed by more physical cornerbacks. Additionally, his ability to contribute as a run blocker going forward is very much in question and could keep him off the field in some sets. If he is to make a fantasy impact as a pro, it will likely come as a slot target. With 3 WRs sets becoming more and more prevalent in the modern NFL, a landing spot where he could compete for a 2^nd or 3^rd WR spot could give him some weekly flex appeal.  Look for Downs to be drafted by the early 2^nd round of rookie drafts.

NFL Comp – Kadarius Toney

Marvin Mims – Oklahoma

One of the youngest high profile WRs in this class, Mims will be just 21 years old throughout the entirety of the 2023 season. Running a 4.38 40-yard dash and posting a 39.5” vertical jump, the Combine is perceived to have given the 5’11” 183lb Mims’ draft stock a boost. Additionally, his 6.9 3-cone drill was good for 4^th in the class among WRs. Mims just barley cracked the 1,000-yard receiving mark in 2022 (on 54 receptions) which can partially be explained by subpar QB play. His 19.5 yards per reception during his college career in conjunction with his raw athletic ability could be an indicator that he is a big play waiting to happen at the next level. He also has the potential to contribute on special teams, which could be an opportunity to showcase his abilities with the ball in his hands early in his career. Concerns as a pro include how he will perform in contested catch situations and just how big his catch radius will prove to be against NFL defensive backs. Another case of draft capital and landing spot being big factors, look for Mims to be off the board in the early-mid portion of round 2 in rookie drafts.

NFL Comp – Darnell Mooney

Jonathan Mingo – Ole Miss

Perhaps a tier too early for Mingo, but his combination of size (6’2” 220lb frame) and speed (4.46 40-yard dash) was too much for me to drop him into tier 4. A strong route runner who plays angry, Mingo fights for every inch of space on the football field. Where many WRs in this class carry question marks regarding how they’ll fair against NFL DBs, Mingo’ combination of size, speed and ball skills would make him an absolute nightmare against slot corners. So, what’s not to like? For all his raw talent, he was unable turn all that ability into college production. Mingo posted a career best 51/861/5 in his senior season and never exceeded 30 receptions, 400 yards or 3 scores in any of his first 3 seasons for the Rebels. 3^rd round draft capital would be a big win for Mingo’s outlook as a pro, and I’d happily swing for the fence in the mid-late 2^nd round of rookie drafts.

NFL Comp – Anquan Boldin

Tier 4

Rashee Rice – SMU

Listed at 6’3” in college, Rice measured in at just 6’1” and 204lbs at the combine. Running a 4.51 40 with 41” vertical and 10’8” broad jump, Rice did enough at the Combine to warrant being on the dynasty WR landscape. As for his college production, Rice blew up as a Senior, dropping an impressive 96/1,355/10 line on the American Athletic Conference in 2022. Pop in his tape there are the flashes of excellence from Rice that you like to see from a small school prospect. If you haven’t seen it, go look up what he did on his back shoulder to Maryland’s Beau Brade down the right sideline, SHEESH.  But it wasn’t all highlight reel plays from Rice during his tenure with the Mustangs. At times, it looks like he’s just going through the motions and not playing with any urgency. There were also too many occasions where Rice relied on his ability to out jump over matched defenders rather than utilize superior route running to make plays easier for himself and his QB. As we know, contested catches only get more difficult on Sundays. Overall, a bit of an enigma with a wide range of outcomes at the next level, Rice is probably going to be a late 2^nd round dynasty selection.

NFL Comp – Chris Godwin

Kayshon Boutte – LSU

The poster child for “what a difference a year makes,” Boutte likely would have found himself on the tier 1 borderline prior to the start of the 2022 season. Why the regression from one year to the next? He had a difficult time getting on the same page with new coach Brian Kelly and he became a father mid-season at the age of 20. Such events are understandable, but what is truly head scratching when it comes to Boutte was his poor showing at the NFL Combine. His second attempt in the 40-yard dash came in at just 4.67 seconds, and his 29” vertical jump and 108” broad jump were among the lowest marks recorded by WRs. On the field, he showed flashes in 2021 where he registered a 38/509/9 line in just a 6-game sample size before an ankle injury ended his season prematurely. Throughout his 3-year career, however, he never exceeded 48 grabs or 735 yards receiving in a single season. To put it bluntly, there are a lot of negatives stacking up against Boutte heading into the NFL draft, and just where he gets selected is difficult to say, but it’s likely he ends up being a day 3 pick. For now, consider him an upside only dart throw round 3 of dynasty drafts this Spring.

NFL Comp – Terrace Marshall

Tyler Scott – Cincinnati

A true speed merchant, Scott was a Junior Olympic sprinter who showed more than 4.44 speed at the Combine.  At 5’10” 177lbs, his 39.5” vertical and 11’1” broad jump impressed scouts and will almost certainly improve his draft stock. An explosive player for the Bearcats, he took a whopping 10 trips to the end zone from 30+ yards out. Scott is also a prime candidate to contribute on special teams, which could provide an opportunity to showcase his abilities right out of the gate. Now for the concerns. As you might imagine, his small stature could cause issues creating separation at the next level. His limited catch radius may also limit him to a gadget type of player as a pro, and such players are rarely reliable fantasy contributors. A likely day 3 prospect, Scott makes for an intriguing 3^rd round dynasty selection.

NFL Comp – T.Y. Hilton

Tier 5 - Honorable Mentions

AT Perry - Wake Forrest

Xavier Hutchinson - Iowa State

Puka Nacua - BYU

Trey Palmer - Nebraska

Nathaniel "Tank" Dell - Houston