2023 Rookie Running Back Class

At long last, Spring is finally in the air. With the long winter, the NFL Combine and the frenzy of activity stemming from the onset of free agency in the rear-view mirror, it is finally draft season. With 2 weeks until Commissioner Roger Goddell walks to the podium (under a chorus of boos) to announce the first selection, this is the time of year that Dynasty Managers need to be in full blown scouting mode.

Some Context:

• Tiers are based on a combination of players’ athletic profiles and college production.
• Projected dynasty rookie draft ranges assume a 12 team 1QB format.
• Player ages reflect the year the player will be at the conclusion of the 2023 fantasy season
• NFL comps are not a projection of fantasy production, but rather a comparison to an NFL player with a similar skillset.

Tier 1

Bijan Robinson – Texas (Age 21)

No hot takes here. Widely touted as the best RB prospect since Saquon Barkley, you’ll find Bijan in a tier of his own in just about every pre-draft ranking, and rightfully so. What’s all the fuss about? Here’s the quick version. Robinson boasts a three down skillset that will keep him on the field in any game script. With 3,316 yards from scrimmage over the past 2 seasons, Robinson proved he could carry the mail.  At 5’11 and 215lbs, he has the size to continue to do so at the next level. The back-to-back first team All-Big 12 RB also showcased 4.46 speed and a 37” vert at the Combine, all but guaranteeing he’ll be a 1^st round selection in the upcoming draft. Pinning down just how productive RBs will be in the NFL can be tricky in dynasty, but Bijan is about as safe it gets. Don’t overthink it, Bijan is your rookie draft 1.01 in all formats, folks.

NFL Comp – Josh Jacobs: Does everything well

Tier 2

Jahmyr Gibbs – Alabama (Age 21)

If you’re a college running back and are looking to take your game to the next level, spending some time in Tuscaloosa isn’t the worst idea. Following a 2-year career at Georgia Tech, Gibbs did just that and transferred to Alabama for his final college campaign. Gibbs did everything for the Tide a season ago, averaging 6.1 YPC on the ground to go along with 44 receptions and 444 receiving yards. To say that Gibbs is a weapon in the passing game would be an understatement. Pop in the tape and you’ll see him regularly putting SEC defenders on skates with after burners to boot, as his 4.36 40-time would indicate. The only downside? Gibbs came in at just 5’9 and 199lbs. By no means is this a deal breaker, but if you prefer your RBs powering in TDs inside the 5-yard line, Gibbs may leave something to be desired in that area of the field. Regardless, assuming he’s off the board by day 2, select him with confidence early in dynasty rookie drafts.

NFL Comp – Alvin Kamara: Capable runner and a PPR magnet

Zach Charbonnet – UCLA (Age 22)

While the easy thing to do would have been to slot Gibbs into a tier of his own behind Robinson, it just didn’t feel right to keep Charbonnet out of the tier 2 mix. Another “do it all” back, Charbonnet carried the UCLA offense in 2021 (1,334 scrimmage yards) and 2022 (1,680 scrimmage yards) with a combined 27 trips to the end zone. To put it bluntly, Charbonnet doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses in his game. That said, he also doesn’t possess any true game changing traits either. His tape shows him being indecisive at times, and a tendency to run upright a bit too often. Both are qualities that could be worrisome as a pro, but his ability to take on blitzers in pass protection should keep him involved on every down in the right situation. Combine his pass blocking chops with the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, and you have PPR upside right out of the gate. Where exactly Charbonnet will be selected is the key question in his profile, but a 2^nd or 3^rd round selection should make him a mid-1^st round pick in rookie drafts.

NFL Comp – James Connor: Not sexy, but a reliable producer

Tier 3

Devon Achane – Texas A&M (Age 22)

If you’re a subscriber to the notion that “speed kills” then I have just the running back prospect for you. His blazing 4.32 40-time made him the fastest offensive player at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine. Make no mistake, this is the type of straight-line speed that will keep opposing defensive coordinators up at night. In addition to his ability to fly down the football field, Achane posted 1,102 yards on the ground (at 5.6 YPC) along with 36 receptions through the air. Impressive marks for a 5’8” 188lb back to be sure. But that is where the primary concern comes into play on Achane, as his size will no doubt be a red flag for some NFL scouts. It is likely that we won’t ever see him carrying the ball at an elite rate at the next level, and if his size proves to be an obstacle in the development of his pass protection, we could see him limited to early down work. A fun prospect to study, Achane is a swing for the fences play with big upside, but also possess a low floor. Draft capital will drastically change where he comes off the board in rookie drafts, but for now pencil him into the middle of round 1 in dynasty.

NFL Comp – Leon Washington: Scary play maker, but can he carry the load?

Tyjae Spears – Tulane (Age 22)

If you didn’t tune into many Green Wave games in the fall of 2022, you’re forgiven, as I myself don’t find myself watching many American Athletic Conference football games. But now that draft season is in full swing there is no excuse to not know about Spears and his game. The 4-year player absolutely exploded in his final college season, putting up a whopping 1,837 yards from scrimmage, 6.9 yards per carry and 21 touchdowns. What really pops off the page with Spears is the devastating cuts he was able to break out at the second and third levels of the opposing defenses. Clocking in at a 4.47 40-yard dash on his pro day and a strong showing during Senior Bowl week, Spears has been creeping up draft boards throughout the off-season. There are, however, concerns regarding how much power he possesses to run through would be tacklers on Sundays. There is also, of course, the injury history to consider with Spears. A 2020 torn ACL that required a complicated surgery and recovery is noteworthy. As is the case with most prospects from smaller programs, it’s hard to tell just how their game will translate. Draft capital will be huge with Spears, but pencil him into the late 1^st or early 2^nd round of dynasty drafts for now.

NFL Comp – Pierre Strong: Small school back with upside in a committee

Kendre Miller – TCU (Age 21)

At 5’11” 215lbs, Miller brings prototypical NFL size to the table. His final college season saw him come just 1 rushing yard shy of the 1,400 mark and his 17 scores helped propel the Horned Frogs to what ended up being a historic national title game defeat. His ability to carry tacklers with him for extra yardage should help keep any offense he ends up being a part of ahead of the chains, but he doesn’t figure to possess elite level upside at the NFL level. His weaknesses include running too high, lack of development in the blocking game and very little exposure to the receiving game at the college level. Once again, draft capital is key when it comes to his NFL outlook. A day 2 selection would have him off rookie draft boards by the early 2^nd round at the latest.

NFL Comp – Dameon Pierce: Productive when given opportunity.

Tier 4

Sean Tucker – Syracuse (Age 22)

Tucker’s decision to forego his senior year of eligibility must be a welcomed sight ACC defenders following his 2-year run through the conference that saw him rack up over 3,000 scrimmage yards in his finals 2 years at the college level. An instinctive runner, Tucker demonstrated a patient running style that helped set up blockers and create openings to matriculate the ball downfield. When defenders did get their hands on Tucker, arm tackles rarely brought him to the ground, and his tape shows him constantly falling forward for extra yardage.  While difficult to bring down after contact, Tucker did not prove to be overly dynamic as a runner and may struggle to get to the perimeter. It’s difficult to make a living as a between the tackle grinder in the modern NFL and day 3 draft capital would almost certainly see him slot in as a committee member and a mid-2^nd round pick in dynasty drafts.

NFL Comp – Ty Chandler

Zach Evans – Ole Miss (Age 22)

If there were a leading candidate for a back being better in the NFL than in College, Evans would get my vote. The 5-star recruit showed glimpses, but never fully burst onto the scene the way his coaches at TCU and Ole Miss would have liked. The lack of production at the college level was certainly not what NFL scouts wanted to see either, but the raw upside remains. At 5’11” 202lbs, Evans runs with a compact frame and has the ability rack up yards after contact, as well as use his 4.4 speed to take the ball to the house at any time. There are several possible outcomes when it comes to Evans’ professional career, but in the 2^nd round of rookie drafts he’ll settle in as an upside play in the right fit.

NFL Comp – Miles Sanders: Could be very fantasy viable in the right situation.

Tank Bigsby – Auburn (Age 22)

If you like to use 2^nd round rookie draft picks on backs that have a chance to get on the field right away, you should be circling Tank Bigsby’s name. Throughout the duration of his college career, the hard charging runner was a bright spot for what could only be considered a bad Auburn football team. Having the weight of the world to produce on his shoulders, there were times where Tank just tried to do too much with the ball in his hands. These instances led to negative plays and fumbles at times, and will certainly be something he needs to clean up as a pro. Despite facing stacked boxes, Bigsby regularly shed arm tackles and proved to be a dangerous short yardage weapon for the Tigers. He is an NFL ready committee member and could see his stock rise to the middle of round 2 in dynasty drafts if he lands in a favorable spot.

NFL Comp – Demarco Murray: Lighter version, but a strong runner who could feast on TDs in a good offense.

Tier 5 – Honorable Mentions

Roschon Johnson – Texas (Age 22)

Roschon had the misfortune of running behind Bijan Robinson at Texas but possesses good size at 6’2” and 223lbs and averaged 6 YPC in 2022. It is hard to say what he will be as a pro given his limited usage in college, but he’s worth a late round flyer.

Israel Abanikanda – Pittsburgh (Age 21)

Abanikanda blew up in 2022 with 1,431 rushing yards and 20 TDs for the Pitt Panthers and would be an excellent fit for a zone running offense. He missed the Combine due to a hamstring injury but ran a 4.26 40-yard dash and posted a 41” vert at his pro day. Both marks would have been good for the top spot at the Combine, but trusting pro day measurables wholeheartedly can be a dicey proposition at best.  

Eric Gray – Oklahoma (Age 24)

A late bloomer, Gray compiled 1,366 yards rushing and added an additional 299 yards through the air on 33 grabs in his senior season at Oklahoma. The former Sooner will turn 24 during his rookie campaign and lacks the speed to hit home runs at the NFL level. Worth a 3^rd round lottery ticket in dynasty, but you’re hoping for him to emerge from a committee and his value clock is already ticking based on his age.

Chase Brown – Illinois (Age 23)

A 5-year college player, Brown took on 328 carries and churned out 1,643 yards in his final year of eligibility for the Fighting Illini. His 4.43 40-time at the Combine was a positive showing for a 209lb back. A solid one cut and no-nonsense runner, Brown doesn’t possess a ton of upside, but should stick on an NFL roster for the duration of his rookie contract.

Evan Hull - Northwestern (Age 23)

While Hull failed to crack the 1,000 yard rushing threshold during his Senior season at Northwestern, he did light it up catching the ball out of the backfield. In fact his 55 receptions in 2022 were more than any other back covered in this write up. His 4.47 40-yard dash at the Combine was also a pleasant surprise. Hull is far from a sure thing, but at 5'10" 209lbs, he brings professional size to the position, and has just as good a chance as any day 3 RB to carve out a role for himself at the next level.

DeWayne McBride – UAB (Age 22)

Another big-time producer, Brown demolished Conference USA on the ground in his 3 years at UAB. He showed a nose for the end zone as well, hitting pay dirt 36 times in 31 college games. Despite his dominance as a rusher, his pass game “usage” was essentially nonexistent. Recording just 5 total receptions, he doesn’t figure to have much pass catching upside as a pro. With so many leagues moving to half and full PPR formats, it’s hard to get overly excited about a prospect from a small program that figures to contribute nothing in the receiving department.

Kenny McIntosh – Georgia (Age 23)

A 2-time National Champion, McIntosh looks to become the next former Bull Dog RB to turn himself into a household name in the NFL. Unfortunately for him, he’s not going to be getting confused with Nick Chubb or Todd Gurley any time soon, as he failed to register more than 150 carries in any of his 4 seasons in Athens. If he has a shot to stick on an NFL roster it will likely need to come as a passing down back. His 43 grabs for 505 yards in 2022 should be enough to at least hear his name get call called on day 3 of the NFL Draft.