2023 Rookie Quarterback Class

At long last, Spring is finally in the air. With the long winter, the NFL Combine and the frenzy of activity stemming from the onset of free agency in the rear-view mirror, it is finally draft season. With 2 weeks until Commissioner Roger Goddell walks to the podium (under a chorus of boos) to announce the first selection, this is the time of year that Dynasty Managers need to be in full blown scouting mode.

Some Context:

• Tiers are based on a combination of players’ athletic profiles and college production.
• Projected dynasty rookie draft ranges assume a 12 team Superflex format.
• Player comps are not a projection of future fantasy production, but rather a comparison to an NFL player with a similar skillset.

Tier 1

C.J. Stroud – Ohio State

For the 3^rd time in 5 years, THE Ohio State University will have a quarterback selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Stroud’s two years as a starter for the Buckeyes were nothing short of phenomenal. With over 8,000 yards passing and a whopping 85 TDs, Stroud took the Big Ten by storm and lead OSU to the College Football Playoffs in his final season in Colombus. Bringing deadly accuracy to the table, Stroud’s 71.9 completion percentage in 2021 ranked 3^rd among Power Conference QBs. Stroud feels like a lock to be a top 5 pick in the upcoming draft, and with that type of capital invested in him, he’ll get every chance to succeed and will likely see himself suiting up as a starter come week 1. While his accuracy was no doubt one of his greatest assets, he had the luxury of throwing the ball to the likes of Garret Wilson and Chris Olave (both of whom exceeded 1,000 yards as NFL rookies) as well as Jaxon Smith-Njigba (projected to be a 1^st round pick in 2023) and Marvin Harrison Jr., who, at the moment, is the number 1 WR in the 2024 draft class.  Regardless of where Stroud lands, it is likely that his NFL WR corps will not compare favorably to his college pass catchers. Additionally, Stroud was not overly eager to use his legs for the majority of his college career. With the “Konami Code” QB being all the rage in the modern fantasy landscape, there are questions as to whether Stroud can give managers enough on the ground to ever enter the elite QB tier. Expect Stroud to be taken early in of the first round in dynasty drafts due to his presumed high floor.

NFL Comp – Jared Goff

Anthony Richardson – Florida

Where Stroud was content to sit in the pocket and surgically dissect defenses during his time in college, Richardson brings a true dual-threat ability to the table. His 103 rushing attempts along with 9 rushing scores demonstrates just how high his fantasy upside can be if he pans out.  An NFL Combine darling, Ricardson’s raw physical abilities are absolutely tantalizing. His 4.43 40-yard dash, 40.5” vertical jump and 10’9” broad jump left scouts drooling at what he could become if he puts it all together. While Richardson has the arm talent to put on a lazar show on deep patterns, his ability to make basic throws in the short area of the field left much to be desired. His footwork and basic throwing mechanics also need work, and improvement in those areas would go a long way in helping Richardson increase his accuracy (53.8 in 2022) and reach his ceiling.  With so many QB needy teams holding top 10 draft picks, it’s likely Richardson will be selected early in the upcoming draft. Early draft capital along with his massive ceiling will have him off the board in the top 5 picks of dynasty drafts.

NFL Comp – Cam Newton

Bryce Young – Alabama

A two-year starter for Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide, Young lead Alabama to the National Title game in 2021 and posted an eye popping 8,356 yards and 80 TDs as a starter. His 65.7% completion rate in the SEC was what scouts were looking for from the conference’s 2021 Offensive Player of the Year. Young showed an above average ability to manipulate defenders with his eyes while maintaining awareness of the rush while standing in the pocket. His ability to break containment and extend plays when rolling out put an additional level of pressure on opposing defenses during his college career. What’s not to like? Well for starters, he measured in at just 5’10” and 204lbs. Beyond the Combine measurements, his actual playing weight remains in question, as he did not participate in any drills at the Combine. This has led scouts to ponder whether he is capable of starting NFL games at over 200lbs. For fantasy purposes, it is hard to say if Young will possess a rushing floor that could vault him into the territory of a perennial top 12 QB. A likely first round pick in the draft, Young will be off the board by the middle of round 1 in dynasty super flex drafts.

NFL Comp – Drew Brees

Tier 2

Will Levis – Kentucky

Where Bryce Young’s size is a concern for NFL Scouts, Levis checks all the boxes for what a traditional pro QB looks like. The 6’4” 229lb signal caller out of Kentucky is a physically gifted specimen who can chuck the ball all over the field with ease. For fans that subscribe to the notion that the “best ability is availability,” Levis proved to be durable enough to play through injuries in 2022. With 11 rushing scores in 2021 and 2022 combined, Levis showed a nose for the end zone at the goal line in the SEC. Another high upside prospect, Levis’ game is fun to watch, but does have its’ warts. To put it bluntly, his footwork is an absolute mess at times and, as expected, it led to inaccurate passes in some situations. Levis’ ability to scan the field is also in question, as his decision making when forced to come off of his primary target resulted in scary turnovers. Speaking of which, he averaged just over 1 interception per game over his final 2 college seasons. If rumors of him sliding down the NFL Draft board prove to be just that, rumors, and he is selected in round 1, he should be a mid-first round pick in dynasty drafts.

NFL Comp – Jay Cutler

Hendon Hooker – Tennessee

While the first 4 QBs have been the talk of the 2023 class, the 2022 SEC Offensive Player of the Year has been incredibly overlooked throughout the off-season. A full-time starter for the Volunteers for 2 years, Hooker brings both prototypical size (6’3” 217lbs) as well as a dual-threat skill set to the table. Where Levis’ footwork need, well, work, Hooker’s is among the best of the best in this class. As for his on the field production, Hooker exceeded 6,000 passing yards and posted a 58:5 TD to INT ratio in 2021 and 2022. He also showed that he could spread the football around to multiple WRs, as both Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman both posted 1,000-yard campaigns during when catching passes from Hooker. So why the lack of hype around Hooker? For one, a mid-season torn ACL sucked a great deal of air out of his growing balloon. At 25 years of age, Hooker is also one of the older signal callers in this crop, potentially making him a tough sell seeing as he’s an older prospect coming off a major injury. Hooker’s draft capital investment is difficult to pin down, but if he’s off the board by the end of the 2^nd round of the NFL draft, he’s likely an early 2^nd round pick in dynasty drafts. If he hears his name called in the 1^st round of the draft, he will almost certainly be a first round pick in dynasty.

NFL Comp – Alex Smith

Tier 3

Stetson Bennett – Georgia

It’s not often that a two-time national championship starting quarterback sees as little hype as Stetson Bennett. Bennett boasted a 68.1% completion rate and averaged 275 passing yards per game for Georgia in 2022.  While he was exactly what the Bulldogs needed at the helm, scouts have questions as to whether Bennett can help an NFL team compete at the next level. At 5’11” 192lbs, he is certainly undersized compared to the top tier prospects not named Bryce Young. Like Hooker, Stetson Bennett is no spring chicken either (as far as NFL QB prospects go) as he will turn 26 during his rookie campaign.  Where Bennett gets drafted truly is anyone’s guess. Best to pencil him in as a mid-late 2^nd round pick in super flex drafts.

NFL Comp – Nick Mullens

Dorian Thompson-Robinson – UCLA

Speaking of lack of hype. There has been so little coverage of UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the pre-draft process that I wouldn’t even blame the average dynasty manger for not knowing his name. A 5-year player for the Bruins, DTR appeared in 49 games during his college career. In that span he accumulated over 10,000 passing yards and an 88-36 TD to INT ratio and steadily improved each year. Additionally, his 69.6% completion rate was good for 6^th in the FBS during his final college campaign. For all the stats he accumulated in college, the question remains if he can consistently make all the throws at the next level. While accurate in the quick passing game, his deep ball was erratic at times. There are also instances of him failing to read defenses properly, which resulted in back breaking turnovers on occasion. More than likely a day 3 selection and in line for a backup role, it will be hard to look at DTR as anything more than a 3^rd round lottery ticket for dynasty managers who have the luxury of exercising patience.

NFL Comp – Josh Johnson