The 2022 WR Class 1 Year Later - Part 1

Each Spring, Dynasty Managers dive headfirst into rookie scouting mode. We memorize heights and weights, 40-times and broad jumps and regurgitate that information like it represents a guaranteed path to fantasy gold on the horizon. Unfortunately, differentiating between hits and misses is a much trickier exercise than simply combing over a player’s draft profile. When we move on to a new crop of players each year, what does that mean for the previous year’s class? Should we assume that we know all there is to know about the 2022 class because they have a year of experience under their belt? Of course not. In this series we’ll look back at the WRs selected around the top 12 in rookie drafts last season and recap their first NFL campaign and project what 2023 has in store for this crop of players.

Some Context:

• All scoring finishes reflect a half PPR format.
• Rankings are based off 1QB data from Dynasty League Football’s (DLF) top 250.
• Player ages indicate the age that the player will be at the conclusion of the 2023 fantasy season.

Drake London – Atlanta Falcons

Age: 22

2022 Finish: WR36

Overall Rank: 21

Pos. Rank: WR13

The first WR off the board in the majority of 2022 rookie drafts, Drake London was the first skill player selected (at #8 overall) during last season’s Draft. The only Falcon to see over 100 targets a year ago, London’s 117 looks were good for 29.3% of the team’s target volume. He parlayed those opportunities into flashes of promise as a rookie, but 2022 was mostly a down year in terms of fantasy production. Exceeding double digit fantasy points just 4 times between weeks 1 and 17, the former Trojan was difficult to trust in starting lineups. During weeks 4 and 12 London posted just 1 double digit scoring performance and 7 of those 9 weeks saw him score fewer than 6 points. To put it bluntly, despite registering 72 receptions for 866 yards, London was not a reliable fantasy option during his rookie year.

Fortunately for managers rostering London, we aren’t replaying the 2022 season. The team has moved on from Marcus Mariota and is turning the reigns over to fellow 2022 draft pick Desmond Ridder. While Ridder did little to inspire confidence as a first-year player, the Falcon’s QB floor cannot be any lower than we saw a season ago. The return of a healthy Kyle Pitts, who missed 7 games due to injury in 2022, should also help draw attention away from the team’s top wide out. The rest of the team’s WR depth chart consists of Damiere Byrd, Mack Hollins, Scotty Miller, and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. None of whom pose a serious threat to London’s future target share. While the competition for volume at his position is minimal, just how many targets will be available remains a questionmark. In 2022 the Falcons ran the ball at a 55.3% rate, which was good for 2^nd in the league. While it may seem logical that the team would opt for a more balanced approach going forward, the Falcon’s actions on the first night of the 2023 NFL draft suggest otherwise. Adding what many experts deem to be a “generational talent” in Bijan Robinson to the mix with the 8^th overall selection, there is a chance that the team elects to run the ball at a similar, if not higher, rate during the upcoming NFL season.

Commish’s Advice: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Hold. If you invested early 2022 rookie draft capital in London do not panic following an underwhelming statistical output last season. While exceeding 800 receiving yards in his first season is nothing to sneeze at, the reality is that nobody won a fantasy championship a year ago because they started Drake London every week. Between a poor QB situation and what will likely be a run heavy approach, London’s upside will be capped again in 2023. But make no mistake, one of two things will happen this season. Either Ridder will take a big step forward and demonstrate that he can capably lead an NFL offense, or the team will make a move to upgrade the position heading into 2024. At just 22 years of age, with top 10 draft capital invested in him, and minimal competition for targets, London has both time and opportunity on his side going forward.

Treylon Burks – Tennessee Titans

Age: 23

2022 Finish: WR80

Overall Rank: 44

Pos. Rank: WR21

Tasked with replacing budding star A.J. Brown, the expectations for Treylon Burks were high following his 18^th overall selection in the 2022 draft. Dynasty managers who selected him in the first half of round 1 in rookie drafts echoed the optimism of Titans fans in hopes that Burks would take over right where Brown left off. Unfortunately for the “Titan Up” crowd, between multiple injuries and the team electing to bring Burks along slowly, 2022 did not bring the statistical output managers were hoping for. In what can only be described as a mess of a season in Nashville, Burks finished 2^nd among WRs for targets with 54, despite missing 6 games due to injury and playing more than 70% of snaps on just 3 occasions.

Looking ahead to 2023, target leader, Robert Woods, has moved on and the team added only journeyman Chris Moore in free agency and waited until the 7^th round to select Colton Dowell in the draft. Objectively speaking, this may be the worst top to bottom WR room in the NFL, which has the potential to make Burks the target funnel in the passing game by default. For the moment, 11-year veteran, Ryan Tannehill, is in line to begin the season at the helm. Between he and Burks missing time at various points during the year, the duo had very little opportunity to get on the same page in 2022. However, if you’re looking for any type of optimism regarding this QB to WR connection, there is a small sample size you can hang your hat on. During a 3-game stretch between weeks 11 and 13, Burks turned 15 targets into 12 catches for 206 yards and a score. But just as it appeared things were heading in the right direction, an early exit to the team’s week 13 contest saw Burks leave the game early with a concussion.

Commish’s Advice: Buy, Hold or Sell?

Hold. For starters, you’re unlikely to get back the mid first round selection that you invested in him just one year ago.  The hope here for Burks’ managers is that he becomes the unquestioned leader for target volume in an offense otherwise devoid of WR talent. The selection of Will Levis early in the 2^nd round indicates that a QB change is likely coming down the road, but Tannehill should retain the starting job while the Titans are in playoff contention. Ideally a full year of health from both WR and QB will give us a more accurate picture of what Burks is capable of at the NFL level. Until then, exercise patience and hope for a bounce back 2023 campaign.